Archive for the ‘Business Cycles’ Category

Service of Remodeling a Business Model

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Nancy Farrell, a fundraiser for a non-profit and a home improvement enthusiast–who says she “knows when to bring in professionals,”–shared a recent experience researching a home remodeling project.

It makes you wonder who is in charge of some companies and who is-and who isn’t-paying attention to business realities.

Nancy wrote:

You’d think with the economy the way it is that customer service would get better but it seems to be getting worse.

**Could it be that because of layoffs staff is stretched thin?

**That there’s bitterness over colleagues being let go in the first place?

**Or, indifference because people know that they can lose their jobs through no fault of their own?

**Maybe large companies are breeding workers who give canned responses and are not prepared to reply to different scenarios?

**General lack of training and supervision?

**Greed (companies that only want large, profitable jobs)?

“Here’s what happened to our family this past month. We went to a large home improvement store. Our powder room commode needed a new seal but we decided to take the opportunity to expand the room, replace the commode and the sink, replace the vinyl floor with stone, add beadboard and paint and recessed lighting and get the room up to code.

“We actually got help at the first place we went to but when we said we wanted the company to set up the contractors, the employee balked saying there needed to be a $5,000 minimum purchase on materials before we could be let into the “program.” In addition, we should be prepared for four months without the powder room.

“I’m not sure how many people buy commodes and install them themselves but rest assured that I do not possess the plumbing know-how. I’m not sure what the ‘program’ is either because we weren’t applying for or even using credit. And four months and $5000 in materials for less than 20 square feet of space-what are they thinking?

“The next large store we visited was devoid of help. So we left.

“On a whim, we stopped at a very small, independently-owned store specializing in kitchens and baths. The owner helped us choose materials and came to our house on a Saturday and discovered some extra space we didn’t know we had. He’ll be the contractor for the job and if all goes well we plan to ask him to bid on gutting and remodeling the kitchen. And with a house that is approaching its 100th birthday I have a lot of other jobs in mind.

“Note: Staff at the big store alluded to the fact they might have to ease up on the $5,000 minimum because of the economy while the small store guy said ‘business is great’ because people aren’t selling their houses-they’re updating them instead. I think his business is good because he doesn’t turn down small jobs.”

Have you come across inflexible businesses that are conducting commerce as though it was 2007 when the economy was relatively hunky dory?

Better yet, can you name and describe some that have benefited by welcoming opportunities, large and small, and figuring out how to make them profitable with an eye to the future?

Service of Forecasts

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

How many days ahead do you start listening to weather forecasts when you’ve planned a beach day, picnic or pool party?

Are you involved with product introductions? Does your company belong to a color forecasting organization so that its bathroom fixtures or towels coordinate with what’s cool in ceramic tile?

Much like people who hope for positive signs or good news from a doctor as they sit by the bedside of a sick friend or relative, I read as many forecasts and prognostications about this economy as I have time for and check out every article that seems to have an answer, looking for inklings of a solid turnaround.

These days, coming to your own conclusions and becoming a forecaster is complicated! Just yesterday, a “Marketplace” headline in The Wall Street Journal screamed, “Maguire Properties Warns of Loan Defaults.” {The article says that Maguire is “one of the largest office building owners in Southern California.”}

 The same paper, on the same page, but with a smaller sized, less prominent headline, announced: “Networks Hold Back Selling Ads In Advance.” The reason? They are betting that the economy will improve and are hoping to be able to charge more than now. Before I got too optimistic, I saw in the “Money & Investing” section another bold headline: “Debt Burden to Weigh on Stocks: Consumers’ Inability to Drive Economic Growth Likely to End Big Gains.” 

My heart skipped a happy beat when, also yesterday, The New York Times declared: “Seattle Paper is Resurgent as a Solo Act,” and reported that the word “profit” is one that now falls from executive lips at the paper in the Emerald City.

And didn’t we–and President Obama–rejoice just a few days ago over the less-than-expected job loss figures? {Is this equivalent to “the patient’s fever is down to 104°?”}

When Paul Krugman agrees with a bailout, do you sleep better? Or when Alan Greenspan furrows his brow, do you follow suit?

What’s your take on forecasters? Has your faith changed? And what about your antenna for predictions–is it picking up strong signals these days?

Service of Seasonal Things

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

In one of the many articles I’ve devoured about how companies are coping with tight-fisted consumers, I read that to encourage sales, some retailers will feature fashion closer to the season in which the bathing suits, sundresses, winter coats or skiwear are worn.

If true, it’s about time. It’s never been that way in my memory. Who is in the mood to look at wool in August?  How many times was I frustrated by the poor selection of bathing suits come 4th of July weekend?

It’s not just clothes. Apart from signs of Christmas in October, if I were a child who wasn’t looking forward to going back to school, seeing all the notebooks and other paraphernalia in stores as early as July would be enough to spoil my vacation.

Why should fashion and back to school stuff be different from the rest of life? Holidays are obviously seasonal-Valentine’s Day never comes in July–and you can’t buy celebrated New Jersey tomatoes in December.

Fiddle ferns are tasty treats for some and unfurl in spring but my favorites at our farmer’s market a little later are English peas, over well before I’ve tired of them. You might find “real” peas from somewhere else at other times of year, but by the time they get to a store, they aren’t the same.  

With seasons come traditions. I have a collection of tee shirts featuring composers from the Bard Music Festival that takes place in Annandale, New York every August. Wagner’s World is the focus this year.

 

I look forward to sweet corn in summer and craft fairs over Thanksgiving and other long weekends. An organic verbena deodorant at L’Occitane is available only in summer. Should I stockpile or would using it in November be disappointing, like the taste of a frozen daiquiri by the side of a bar in midtown Manhattan in comparison to a sip by the side of a pool in St. Barts?

Have you failed to find something you need because you missed the retail season or does the Internet help? What are some of your favorite seasonal things?

Service and the Business Cycle

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

In today’s guest post, Frank Paine a retired international banker, regulatory official, and the author of “The Financing of Ship Acquisitions,” tackles a thorny issue. Do those who lead the institutions that serve us–corporate, philanthropic, and governmental or otherwise–properly prepare themselves to address the inevitability of downturns in the business cycle?

He predicts that, “There may even come a time when organization directors will be held personally responsible for the adequacy of the analysis underlying their decisions.”  And adds, “That wouldn’t be such a bad thing…”

Do you agree with his analysis, and if so, with his conclusion?

In one sense or another, every organization exists for the purpose of giving service.  Corporations exist to provide goods and services desired by the market place: auto companies to provide the cars that we all know and love; electric utilities to provide the “juice” for all the appliances that we can’t seem to do without; ships, trains and trucks to transport those goods; “head hunters” to help companies staff themselves;  insurance companies to help everybody manage their risks; non-profits to raise funds for good causes and support the arts, and industry associations to promote their industries and provide networking opportunities that would not otherwise be possible; and schools and universities to provide educational services for our next generations.

The beneficiaries of these services are always multiple. Business organizations service their customers, their shareholders and their employees. Non-profits benefit their members, their particular causes, and, yes, their employees.  Educational institutions benefit their students, their faculties, their administrations, and everybody depending on them to provide well-educated people to the market place, and conduct vital research.  I could go on…

I want to make a plea to anybody directly or indirectly involved in providing service (and that should be pretty much everybody) to think seriously about the impact of the business cycle of the sector they are involved with.  We are now going through the worst recession that many of us have ever seen, and so the evidence of failures to understand business cycles are all around us.  We may be close to seeing the death knell of American automobile production.  We are seeing our banking system being challenged as it never has been in our time.  And non-profits everywhere are seeing their fortunes suffer from whatever is affecting their largest sources of funds.  And so on…

I am getting very tired of hearing organizations acknowledge their failure to see it coming, usually with very self-serving explanations.  I remember having a major oil company acknowledge that throughout its history, it had failed to properly understand when it should order tankers.  Over 30 years ago, I myself correctly analyzed the forces that would cause General Motors to be on the brink of bankruptcy today.  I also correctly predicted the failure of a Brazilian bank two years in advance.  There were plenty of people that foresaw the current banking “crisis” several years in advance.  Etc., etc., etc.

Trust me, I am not a genius-I simply had my eyes open.

It is not true that business cycles cannot be analyzed and understood, but it does take patience and time.  And much of the expertise can be bought-there is an army of analysts, many of them very good that are begging for work.  And there is the body of research provided by universities.

The people who most need the benefit of this analysis and understanding of the business cycle are the Board of Directors/Trustees (or whatever), and the most senior management.  How many times have you found that investments, projects, etc. can only get board approval at the top of the cycle?  It’s so easy to say, “This is a hot market and we need to be in it,” without taking the time and trouble to determine when the investment will actually produce results.

And so, in order to preserve service capacity, boards of organizations should be “opening their eyes” further to fully understand their business cycles, and make decisions in accordance with that understanding.  Who knows? There may even come a time when organization directors will be held personally responsible for the adequacy of the analysis underlying their decisions.  That wouldn’t be such a bad thing…

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